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Here, Sentences 1, 4, and 5 discuss the general theme of how non-experts or forecasters without specialized expertise can make accurate predictions, often outperforming experts. Sentence 3 adds context by highlighting that this success occurs even when experts have access to classified information.
Contrarily, Sentence 2 shifts the focus to the “intelligence community's interest in forecasting models” rather than continuing the discussion on the accuracy and success of forecasters versus experts. This makes it unrelated to the main flow of the paragraph.
Let us examine the points presented in each sentence to further understand how the statements link. Sentence 1 introduces the main idea that forecasting is appealing because it works even without requiring specialized expertise. Building on this idea, Sentence 5 highlights that non-experts can often outperform experts in forecasting; this, in a way, relates to the appeal of forecasting introduced in the first sentence. Sentence 4 provides evidence to support the claim made in Sentence 5. It refers to a specific study where non-experts outperformed experts in predicting geopolitical events, solidifying the argument that non-expert forecasting can be more reliable. Sentence 3 strengthens the previous claim by highlighting that the experts, despite having access to classified intelligence, were still outperformed by non-experts. In this manner, the arrangement 1-5-4-3 renders a coherent paragraph.
Hence, Sentence 2 is the odd one out.